Germany poured some cold water on risk sentiment (risk indicators up overnight) with the remark that Greece should go to the IMF instead of the EU. We are still bullish on risk.
What's going on?
· Germany poured some cold water on risk sentiment (risk indicators up overnight) with the remark that Greece should go to the IMF instead of the EU. We are still bullish on stocks, however, and buy on dips.
· Initial Jobless Claims have been very sticky in recent months and so far do not point to positive Nonfarm Payrolls (when Census hiring is subtracted). CPI is also out and is expected to be roughly flat month-on-month, confirming our view that inflation is (and will remain for some time) a non-event in the US.
· China is conducting stress tests to estimate the outcome of a de-pegging of the renminbi from the US Dollar. Forward contracts point to a 2.4% appreciation of the renminbi a year from now.
Calendar
|
Economic Data Releases |
|
|
Country |
Time (GMT) |
Name |
Saxo |
Consensus |
Prior |
|
US |
12:30 |
CPI / Core CPI MoM (FEB) |
0.1% / 0.0% |
0.1% / 0.1% |
0.2% / -0.1% |
|
US |
12:30 |
Initial / Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
455K / 4522K |
462K / 4558K |
|
US |
14:00 |
Philly Fed / Leading Indicators MoM (FEB) |
|
18.0 / 0.1% |
17.6 / 0.3% |
|
FX |
Daily stance |
Comment |
|
EURUSD |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 1.3653 and target 1.3700. Stop below 1.3637. |
|
USDJPY |
0/+ |
Buy at the break of 90.40 and target 90.63. Stop below 90.28 |
|
EURJPY |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 123.18 and target 123.69. Stop below 123.00. |
|
GBPUSD |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 1.5285 and target 1.5334. Stop below 1.5269. |
|
AUDUSD |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 0.9202 and target 0.9249. Stop below 0.9185. |